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It was in the pursuit of interesting now deated policy-relevant questions that my work watcheed me from a career in aircraft engineering, through economic forecasting to end my days in seeking a submissive as fuck field of criminology. Administratively these employments represent three different careers and banchory gul sex chat both academic and government service.

It was, indeed, only after retirement that I began to realise that there was a philosophical continuity in the ways in which I had come watchev state problems and the methods I had used in the solutions. It would, however, be dull and probably pointless to discuss this trend abstractly, while it may be interesting and sometimes amusing if I tell the stories as an off-the-record historical and personal. If, today, I were present in a public meeting and someone asked, "Is there a criminologist in the house?

It is a classification I cannot avoid. Yet when questioned by the press or ladyboy personals persons, I know that if I say that I am or was a criminologist, a totally inaccurate picture of my activities and background of knowledge would be assumed. I would be expected to know a lot about criminals and certainly able to comment upon whatever sensational case was currently in the headlines.

To avoid embarrassment in spontaneous conversations such as those which arise on long flights, I would often respond to inquiries by saying that I am "a has-been statistician". If the "statistician" bit did not ensure termination of the conversation, the "has been" seemed to do so. The classification of occupations noted above may be misleading for students who aspire to enter policy research. For example, I regret that students often opt for a degree course in one or other of the social sciences because they hope thereby to avoid mathematics.

They ought to be wrong about that! I certainly found it essential to use mathematical models to provide the information needed by governments, in the Royal Air Force, and in the Wartime Social Survey and later as a criminologist. Nonetheless, I think it may be interesting vrmont perhaps helpful to would-be students if I avoid mathematical detail. I will try. Advising governments. The history of political change may be well documented from the political and administrative viewpoint, but few records describe the background to the advice or the experiences of the advisers.

None of the research reports of projects which I have directed revealed the chance meetings which changed a project's direction, the politics of its funding, the mistaken specifications of problems cha resolved, the false trails taken, nor did they reveal the ethical challenges involved in my role as director, author or co-author.

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In my research reports it would have been quite inappropriate for me to discuss any of the personal problems which were coped with during the projects. Though there certainly was drama in the research activity this could not be reported in the official write-up. Nonetheless the dramatic hidden pages escort which occur in research work are as powerful and as plentiful as any elsewhere.

Perhaps some of these true life dramas should be told? The Style of Presentation to be Adopted. The dramatic incidents in which I was heing seldom derived from personal concerns, but related more or less directly to research. There were other events which were somewhat lakewood fuck buddy. I am persuaded to include a sample of these though I remain doubtful of their relevance to my central theme, namely, telling what a role in social research is like at the operational level when advising on governmental policy.

I believe that social research is a worthwhile activity and that if sound methods are deployed, the should be taken seriously. It is a career I would recommend. V chino escorts is both challenging and demanding. Research is not an activity one can locate firmly in the workplace and leave it there during evenings and weekends. Research involves the whole person, and those around can hardly escape being drawn in. In so far as I shall be writing about myself, it is to employ this self as an instrument to convey more free chat with black women information than a mere historical.

In my writings, especially those which reported officially sponsored research, Char had available much more information than I was able or allowed to put into the reports. Some of this information I remember and since I am now 'out-of-school' I can tell a few tales. Some of the politicians and military men may, incidentally receive rough assessment. Obviously I can discuss only those events which have concerned me in some way and where I have direct knowledge that is my only 'data base'.

But I will try not to get trapped into explaining myself. Attempts at self-discovery seem to me to border on the absurd, and I will adlt only minimally from work which I have published elsewhere. In the telling of those research projects which were regarded as successful I cannot restrict myself only to those projects which were acted upon by the authorities.

In some instances there will inevitably be a tone of "I told you so! Or, heing remembering my civil service training I should say, "the current deplorable situation demonstrates that research findings should not have been ignored". When I was presenting research it was always necessary to be tactful: after all the work had been sponsored by the authorities, and perhaps they deserved some credit for merely asking.

Maybe they were hoping for endorsements of the policies they wanted to follow, and in many cases went ahead without the support of research. At times, inconvenient findings were suppressed. Indeed beinb patterns are not directly observed and their superimposition on events may or may not be helpful. Regularities may be seen and conspiracies imagined where there was nothing more than inelegant muddle. I have expressed from time to time my opinion that too little attention is paid to vermojt highly ificant function of muddle: whether obvious muddle or well hidden as administrative practice.

Though the popular image of scientific work suggests orderliness, the work of scientists is not immune to the intrusive muddle. Those theories demonstrated by the use of methods that rely on obvious wtched or impressive apparatus are easier to envisage and dominate the popular view. In particular, the paper work sciences attract the attention of few playwrights or novelists. I know of no fictional stories where the hero watcbed a statistician. Yet statistics is central to all forms of research de.

An analogy for the structure of watcehd writing here might be that of erecting a brick building; using a large quantity of mortar! The research projects are the 'bricks' and the social and domestic naughty personals online are the mortar. The mortar is as essential as the bricks.

This thought adds a rationale for the inclusion of some items that I would otherwise have omitted. Social Research v. Political Expediency? Employment, necessary for financial support, entails certain conformity even for research scientists. This in turn can involve conflict. In retrospect I can isolate four key incidents which seem rather like nodes in my life's network of research projects.

These events were the result of my adopting what I believed to be an ethical position. I think I should give american chat brief indication of these events now in order to provide a concise background for the reader. The events will feature in more detail in their correct sequence later.

Female escort edmonton major dramatic situations that characterised my policy research careers illustrate difficulties at the interface of management or administration and research perspectives. The first may seem trivial. As a young clerical officer in a Ministry of Labour Local office I was said to be insubordinate when I objected to an order from my manager to substitute some "representative cases" for a random sample drawn in accord with detailed instructions from Head Office.

This precipitated my first change of career from the civil service to industry. Management cannot understand the operations that are essential to obtain sound samples.

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The methods are not intuitive. My Royal Air Force commission terminated when chaat Air Chief Marshal found a questionnaire looking for texting right now about near accidents in a crew room. He ordered the research to cease forthwith because he would "not have junior officers criticising their equipment".

The conflict of flying safety research methods and the requirements of military "good order and discipline" do not, apparently, converge I was most fortunate that another source of income quickly found me! Later I found myself at the beginning of in-house research at the Home Office. Subsequent events have proved that I was, unfortunately, right. An accusation of 'leaking' was not true, but I reed.

Unfortunately there was little doubt about the good intentions of the Minister. Having by that time established some credibility in criminological research, I had little choice but axult accept an offer from the University of California. This post terminated when as the mom escorts Acting Dean of the School of Criminology and Criminalistics I refused to inform on my staff as required by the Regents.

By drawing attention to these quasi-ethical stands I do not wish to suggest that others placed in similar positions would have acted differently. The ificance of these events and the resulting career changes was that they led to the evolution of my research strategy -- the latent theme of this work. While conflict situations ginger leigh escort a dramatic interest, they had little impact upon the development of my research style, except that of a catalyst that changed my career and the field of application of the research techniques.

It essxe, of course, the projects described and the developing methodology that provide the "meat". For good measure I include a description of my experience of a sophisticated administrative technique known as "polishing vermotn skids". Validity of beeing data To the lay reader it is probably my work of forecasting both economic and criminal behaviour which will be the main interest. This is because of the outcomes, rather than the method or style of the research.

It is true that my 'predictive' forecasting work was particularly successful in that the prognostications which were tested by subsequent events proved to be embarrassingly correct. Some of my best friends are psychologists! This chapter is prepared in an attempt to give serious consideration to the clinical viewpoint within that discipline, though I do not find its explanations at all persuasive.

I am adylt convinced that my flying safety, economic or social policy research vermnot dependent in any way upon either my early education or childhood experiences. Nonetheless, in all fairness I think I should make an attempt to esssex certain events, though I remain doubtful as to their ificance. Educational Background.

Education is a continuing process. I find it unsatisfactory to assume that formal, structured education is the main educational watche in life. It may be that some educational institutions provide a social setting and watchwd network of personal contacts that relate, often quite powerfully with future careers. For purposes of abstract analysis I would distinguish the educational from the socialising features of the school institution, though obviously both are indistinguishable in practical situations.

It would be interesting to ask a sample of the general population how many of their pre-teenage school associates they are still contacting, such as by at least an exchange of seasonal greeting cards. It is a reasonable assumption that we would observe a strong correlation with the status of the williston skien escorts institution essx.

My formal education, apart from providing me with the three-R basic skills, was in my view almost entirely veermont. If lonely woman seeking man glens falls was a socialising experience, it was not an edmonton escourts I can recall. Wached fundamentalist parents maintained a strong control over all my school associates.

Indeed for a of years I had to participate in religious practices, including singing solos while stood up on church pews.

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I did not rebel, and for some time I received religious training with a view to the ministry. This was under the tutelage of a Dr. Dalling in Southampton. However, if I give any credit to my early educational experiences I have no hesitation in noting the influence of my science master at my Eastleigh school. He gave me zero marks for a piece of work because the answer I provided was "too accurate". I was not entitled to any credit for deriving the answer by simple maths and some deductions!

I had not made the measurements. This early lesson in the calculus of observations was probably the most ificant learning experience of all my school years. I am sure that I did not appreciate the justice of this assessment at the time. Indeed its ificance may only now have been realised when searching for interesting school days memories. This master, whose name avoids me, was the one who did not discriminate against me as I saw it for my lack of sports and such abilities.

I had an unrecognised vision defect -- a total lack of depth vision. I also recall that teacher was an atheist and made no secret of this in the class. My father died when I was That was x chico escort This was the time of the great depression celebrated in the song, "Brother can you spare a dime".

Which reminds me! I had two brothers, but they were much older and neither had kept in touch. My widowed mother and I managed unaided on our own, partly on the income from the shop which had been my father's boot and shoe store at Eastleigh. I was accepted for a social work course at Southampton University for training as a probation officer.

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Financial problems made it impossible for me to take up full-time study. Into Employment. The Eastleigh retail business needed my late father's skills and practice as a chiropodist, and whatever help I could give was not producing adequate income. Soon the business failed completely.

I had to get a full-time job. I went to see the Ministry of Labour at the Wesleyan Church Hall and was immediately recruited to their temporary staff. The vermot prospering business at that time was unemployment! I was at the Eastleigh office for a few months and then was moved to a small paradice babes office in Bishops Waltham some 12 miles distant.

I was We were able to let the shop property and to purchase a small home in Swanmore a few miles from my office.

A chat adult essex vermont being watched

My salary and the rental from the Eastleigh property escort and babes lismore my mother and I with a very modest living. I wanted to continue my education but now part-time evening tuition was the only available means. I could not continue my probation officer training on a part-time evening basis, so I substituted evening classes in a asian massage escort bristol of subjects, including statistics.

My health must have been good because I cycled 12 miles each way to Southampton University for these evening classes on several days of the week and in addition took part in weekend activities in the village. I can accept that an embryonic scientist was probably veemont in my first employment and was demonstrated by my first altercation with management!

This was at Bishops Waltham Ministry of Labour. It seems that at this period in my life events were beginning to take place which may have contributed to my personal chaf and my scientific orientation, though my focal theme of methodology cannot be traced until much later. I will, therefore, begin my personal background story at around that time and continue from there in chronological order in so far as this is possible. A Note on two aspects of Pre-war Life. Certainly the mids, particularly on the west coast of the U.

I was at the University of California at Berkeley during some of these years and I will discuss the events in bfing time sequence. The fact that my first employment was in a government department was certainly a very important factor in my personal development. My posting to a village office was most ificant in moulding my social aeult at a critical time. Perhaps village life in my youth was little different from that of a century before and very different from anything which can be experienced in England today.

The depression was an added feature impinging on the life of all. It would be misleading if readers interpreted roles and operations in contemporary terms. If my experiences are to be interpreted usefully, this early environment must be related to my social development -- the processes of learning. I will take a few paragraphs to sketch the cultural settings of my early employment and leisure.

It may seem surprising that my transfer from Eastleigh to the Bishops Waltham office of the Ministry of Labour resulted in no such isolation. It was not that Bishops Waltham was an untypical Hampshire xdult. Status concerns and a clear petite london escorts social structure dominated the village life.

I suggest that my lack of difficulty was due to two factors, one theoretical and general and the other more specific to my particular situation. The failure of villages to accommodate and integrate incomers is, I suggest, due to the dissemination of information and the ways in which information is processed within a small community. This was of more impact before television and the more general ownership of motor vehicles consequent upon the development of easy credit.

In the village a person cannot remain anonymous and mysterious as they can in a city -- they must be fitted into the structure, and the social structure of village life is an escort travestis rancho cucamonga rich environment. Less sociologically put; one cannot get lost in a village. I was in a position where I quickly became known. But of more ificance was the status factor: Vetmont was a civil wwtched indeed an official!

Today this may seem surprising. Civil servants are not now highly regarded. I must clarify. The contemporary public image of civil servants has been influenced by humorous drama and the concept that Whitehall is populated at the higher levels with Oxbridge graduates who have their own agenda for the nation.

Out on a limb is the scientific civil service with a similarly graded structure except that it is so deed that the specialist is always ranked somewhat below the administrative parallel. My job in the Ministry of Labour though almost at the bottom of the adulf service pecking order -- a clerical officer grade - was, nonetheless, of some substance in village life in pre-war times.

My accommodation to village life and culture was doubtless further facilitated by my ability to play an organ when called upon to do so, not to mention my ownership of a car. My car ownership certainly led to some degree of popularity with my age group most of whom were not so privileged. It was certainly a ificant feature of my life style. The result was that I was diverted from both my earlier study and my career orientation. Though the dominance of religion continued to diminish, there was still a considerable residual.

It was about this time that I became a church organist in a nearby parish though it was by then the organ not gillingham prostitute guide denomination which was of interest. Wafched events in my experiences in the village were, for me, rather good fun as I gained a mental freedom from my strict upbringing.

Indeed some of the events at that time still have a pleasant flavour. Pre-war adolescent village culture provided many experiences which today may be of some historical interest.

A chat adult essex vermont being watched

Squires, dances and Conservatives. Bishops Waltham in the pre-war WW2 years still retained a of features surviving from feudal times. Tithes were still expected. There were still a of relics of the past in active operation. There was a "midnight baker" who did actually bake around midnight and deliver the new bread with each dawn. He also used a faggot oven. This had only one chamber where the fire was set with bundles of brushwood from local coppicing. After reaching temperature the fire was raked out and when the chamber was still hot the dough replaced the brushwood.

There was a local bank owned by rimming escort las vegas 'squire'. This was Gunner's Bank, and the Gunners lived in the 'big house'. Tenant farmers were distinguished from the superior owner farmers. The unemployed were a new phenomenon and, for the most part, were casual farm labourers or building trades workers who were on and off the 'dole' depending upon conditions.

Some ed-on when it froze, or rained! A ificant percentage were seafaring men who 'ed on' between voyages of the great liners. Calculation of benefit entitlement was complex.

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Interviewing was challenging and I found hereford escort interesting to obtain the necessary information with good humour. I had 'good relations' with the unemployed and seekers for work. At first I was the junior of a staff of three, but after a few months we were two: the manager and myself. This was stretching the honours somewhat because civilian use of military ranks courtesy titles conventionally applied only for major and above and its equivalents in other services.

But he was a pillar of the Swanmore establishment. He was an interesting chap, though he would now be regarded as somewhat exploitative in his allocation of duties to me while he went golfing. But the job paid a fair salary and as a civil servant albeit temporary my status in the village was such that I could associate with the sons and daughters of the squire, farmers and bankers.

As an occasional Church organist I was 'qualified' to associate on almost equal social terms with the main Bishops Waltham Parish organist who was also the north dakota personals of the local Motet and Madrigal Society.

A chat adult essex vermont being watched

I have often wondered since who he really was, and what happened to him. He went up to Oxford after a few months. He was an extremely fine organist and conductor. He introduced me esex the Dolmetsch group in Guildford, so he seems to have been well-connected His name was Heath. But I forget his first name. Perhaps it was "Ted"? I would find it too embarrassing vrrmont try to find out! Of course there was no television and most of the 'life' of the village had to be achieved within the village or the complex of villages and hamlets of which Bishops Waltham was the centre.

It had a local railway station -- a terminus on cyat sideline from Botley. Trains were not frequent. A 'bus service to Winchester ran every two hours but ceased in the early evening, and there was an occasional service to both Eastleigh and Southampton. A cinema opened twice weekly. If we were going to have any fun we had to devise it for ourselves. We adulr.

But there were social constraints of class that even the younger generation could not or would not breach. These wwatched 'democratic' in that they were open to all at a reasonable entry price, however, only those who presented themselves in proper evening dress or dinner jackets were admitted. Some dances were held at the 'big house' and a select few of the young folk were invited. A requirement for a male for an invitation seems to have been the possession of a car.

I had one invitation, vedmont I think I was too well behaved to be invited again. Say, perhaps that I was shocked at the way the top people enjoyed themselves. I will recount just one incident because it provides a independant escorts east granby to life pre-war in village vsrmont class society. On the occasion of my invitation things went with a swing and were in no particular manner remarkable, until around midnight.

Drinks were available and 'finger foods'. At about midnight lots were drawn for partners.

A chat adult essex vermont being watched

One male and car, and one female; selected at random. Then a second hat was produced and sealed papers drawn by the partners. These contained instructions as to a 'bit of fun' which was to take place forthwith at the address noted. Clearly there was no intent 'permanently to deprive' the owner of wstched goods, and trespass without damage would not make a case.

So a carefully engineered entry was all that was required. My partner and I had an easy target in a free dating big wells chat hotel. On the evening in question, by But the pair who had the most distant asment -- some 10 miles -- still had not returned. We waited: tension mounted. Then they adulf the Hall together carrying something with ezsex care, swaddled in the car rug. A small white hand was protruding!

A chat adult essex vermont being watched

Now kidnapping was not on the menu. As we watched somewhat aghast they began to unwrap the body in the centre of the ballroom floor. It was, of course, a stone statuette, and though obviously mature she was just the right baby size. It belonged in a garden. The group decided that a nude was rather out-of-place in the 'house' and we proceeded to apply cosmetics and clothing. Later, in the early hours, it was returned beung its plinth with a note attached to the effect that the 'league for garden modesty' had taken matters in hand.

A mouse trap stolen from the Matron of the Red Cross was painted with red crosses and returned with sugar mouse in place. I do not remember any other details: and geing I did I would not tell. Despite such occasions in village life everyone's behaviour was reasonably predictable, including that of the village idiot who made a show of 'controlling' the local traffic.

He had little difficulty except on market days. I later managed to integrate these observations into my theory of 'social deviance'. I could have had much more fun if I had freed myself totally from my fundamentalist inhibitions. It was, with few exceptions an uneventful bareback escorts in australia with the usual village scandals! I enjoyed discussions about current affairs and music with the ly mentioned Chairman of the Junior Imperial League.

I was the secretary of the League. The League members were, on the whole, not much concerned with politics. Though political content of the proceedings of the Junior Imperial League were almost zero, for some perverse reason my association with that group brought me into contact with the thinking of the opposition. Escorts in mexico at the local monastery The White Fathers was a young radical activist.

He was interested in local footpath preservation. Hiking as a leisure pursuit was not of interest to the Imperial League members who as sons and daughters of the landed gentry, were horse riders. I could not ride but I cycled and walked. I think it was a chance meeting on one of my hikes in the area cyat I met my left-of-centre discussant. Our common interest in walking meant that we often took hikes together, during which we discussed political, economic and social matters.

Religion was barred as looking for a strong man fwb topic. Perhaps arising from the stimulus of these discussions I began to take an interest in personnel management and industrial welfare. I had some contact with trades union issues in my work with the Ministry of Labour.

At that time there was an Vermong Welfare Society later I believe to become the Institute of Personnel Management which published a journal and held watchfd conferences to propagate the developing ideas of personnel management as a subject of study. I was able to this Society and it afforded me the opportunity to attend my first 'learned society' conference held at the University of Reading. This was a great experience.

World War II Begins. Then WW2 was declared. This was September A few days before I had been on vacation in Germany. With many others we had been 'rounded up' by the Consulate staff and rushed back to England. The coach trip from Koln via Aachen, across Belgium was through a thick fog. The coach was packed solid with a multinational, motley group of passengers, including some nuns who stood continuously telling their be, obviously scared to hell!

I am sure I remember this correctly though the drama may have led free sexting numbers winnipeg some enhancement or distortion at a later date. But back to work. As a Ministry of Labour officer with some years experience I was not, despite my age, due for adulr to the forces. The work was termed "reserved employment", though this category was continuously eroded as the war proceeded and I could ewsex rely upon remaining a civilian.

My office was charged with registration for service or conscientious objection. I tried to protect the objectors from the attention of the 'Captain' who took a poor view of their moral position. Among my official duties was the preparation of several cgat returns. It may have been that work which prompted me to esxex up evening classes in statistics.

In any event by the time war began I had gained a good basic knowledge of applied statistics and sampling theory. Perhaps this interest had been stimulated by the early lesson in the calculus of observations at school when my 'right' answer was marked 'wrong'. There was also a philosophical attraction because statistics with its concept of uncertainty provided a good antidote to my earlier emphasis on 'faith'. This knowledge was about to prove very ificant and to result in a change of career.

My limited statistical theory was sufficient to become the basis of a serious argument with the 'Captain'. We had instructions from H. I was working up this material when the 'Captain' asked to look at the cases I had 'pulled'. He was unhappy with the image afforded by this group. He demanded that I select 'some more typical cases'. I objected and was overruled. I saw this as a serious matter of intentionally presenting misleading data: almost an ethical issue.

Thereafter my relationship with the boss deteriorated. The sampling incident and my 'insubordination' made it desirable to seek another post. I applied for transfer to the Fareham office. No post was available. So why should I stay in the civil service? I wanted to stay with my mother for as long as possible because, to me, she seemed to be vulnerable.

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She had never fitted into the local community life. Except for her Methodist Church attendance she was isolated. So I wanted to continue in some form of exempted employment. The war effort as various manufacturing processes were known needed staff of all kinds. Many were exempted from conscription. All vacancies had to be notified to the Labour Exchange.

This meant that all vacancies within the catchment area of the Bishops Waltham office were notified to me and there was also a 'trawl' of other vacancies for special appointments.

Regular exams and cleanings

So, when tension began to build subsequent to the 'random sampling' incident, I was in possession of much useful data. Change of role: Folland Aircraft. Among the notifications was one for a 'planner' for materials control at Folland Aircraft at Hamble on Southampton Water and hence within easy commute by car. Petrol was rationed but there were added coupons for those needing to use their cars to get to 'essential employment'. I would qualify, san bernardino prostitutes phone numbers I reckoned that I could drive economically and increase my available leisure mileage.

Materials control involved calculating stock usage rates, devising relative charts and providing the information for 'progress chasers'. I was appointed.

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